If you are buying an apartment in Warsaw for rental purposes, the key question is not “new or resale”, but which option in your specific situation will generate a higher and more stable return.
The decision should be based on numbers: purchase price, time to start renting, achievable rent level, finishing or renovation costs, technical risk, and long term capital growth potential.
These are the elements that directly impact your rate of return, not the label of primary or secondary market.
Why is Warsaw a key investment market?
Warsaw is the largest employment and rental market in Poland, with the highest rent levels and strong transaction liquidity. In 2024, foreign buyers purchased 17,330 apartments in Poland. The average size of these properties exceeded 58 square meters. In Warsaw alone, purchases by foreign nationals were counted in the thousands annually, confirming the capital’s attractiveness as an investment destination.
In 2025, the market became more selective. Supply increased and pressure for fast decisions declined. For investors, this translated into stronger negotiating power and a wider range of options.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, 3,757 new apartments were sold in Warsaw, while 4,054 units were introduced to the market. Total available supply at the end of December reached 16,685 units. This high level of inventory has shifted the balance of power in the primary market.
Key differences from an investor’s perspective
In Warsaw, the difference between the primary and secondary market has very practical implications.
The primary market is advantageous when you value predictable standards, lower technical risk in the first years, modern buildings, elevators, underground parking, and easier long term maintenance of rental quality.
At the end of 2025, the average asking price for a new apartment in Warsaw was approximately PLN 18,700 per square meter. This provides a clear benchmark to assess whether a specific investment is priced in line with the market.
The secondary market offers advantages when you want to start renting quickly, reduce vacancy costs, purchase below market value, or increase property value through renovation and better alignment with tenant demand.
In return, you assume greater technical risk and responsibility for the condition of the building and homeowners association.
For a foreign investor, process organization and operational risk control are equally important. Stable performance is more often the result of well calculated entry costs than of the chosen market segment alone.
Capital growth potential in Warsaw
The years 2023 and 2024 brought strong price growth. In 2025, the market showed clear signs of normalization.
According to National Bank of Poland data for the third quarter of 2025, transaction prices in Warsaw declined quarter on quarter by 0.6 percent on the primary market and 0.8 percent on the secondary market. Year on year, prices decreased by 2.7 percent on the secondary market and showed a slight change of minus 0.2 percent on the primary market.
For a 2026 strategy, this means one thing: returns no longer result from simply holding property in a rising market. Selection is crucial. Micro location, apartment layout, building standard, and entry price in relation to real tenant demand now determine performance.
This is good news for investors who make decisions based on data rather than assumptions.
Time to rental and the real cost of vacancy
The time required to start renting is one of the most underestimated costs in property investment.
At the end of 2025, the average monthly rent in Warsaw reached PLN 5,013 according to Otodom data. Each month without a tenant represents a measurable loss that directly reduces annual returns.
H3: How do primary and secondary markets affect rental start?
The secondary market often allows you to begin renting faster because the property already exists and may be ready for occupancy.
The primary market requires waiting for handover and finishing works, but reduces the risk of defects during the initial rental period.
For investors operating from abroad, the time required to launch the rental directly affects liquidity and risk control.
Market and operational risk in 2026
In Warsaw, investment risk can be divided into two main categories.
Market risk relates to changes in supply and demand. High primary market inventory in 2025 confirms that the market does not grow in a linear manner. Greater supply means more choice, but also stronger competition for tenants.
Operational risk differs by segment. In the primary market, it involves handover timelines, finishing quality, and capital being tied up before rental begins. In the secondary market, it includes technical condition, renovation costs, and the overall state of the building and homeowners association.
Bank analyses for 2026 indicate a scenario of continued high supply and gradual demand recovery. This environment favors investors who can negotiate effectively and select projects with a clear competitive advantage.
When does the primary market offer a stronger advantage?
The primary market in Warsaw is a better choice when you want to limit technical risk in the first years, target tenants expecting modern standards, accept a longer waiting period before rental starts, and prioritize predictable building maintenance costs.
The high supply of new apartments in 2025 increases opportunities for careful selection and negotiation. At a price level of around PLN 18,700 per square meter, the key question is whether you are buying at market value or above real market potential.
When can the secondary market deliver a higher return?
The secondary market in Warsaw often performs better when your priority is fast cash flow, you are buying in a location with established rental demand, you have a clear renovation strategy, and you are able to accurately estimate technical costs and negotiate effectively.
The weaker year on year price dynamics in 2025 created more room for negotiation, but required stronger analytical discipline.
A mixed strategy as a diversification approach
For foreign investors, a mixed strategy may be a rational solution.
A model aligned with Warsaw’s realities in 2025 and 2026 may include one secondary market apartment for immediate rental income and cash flow, combined with one primary market apartment as a longer term investment in a newer product with lower technical risk in the early years.
With an average rent of PLN 5,013 per month, fast rental activation has measurable financial value. At the same time, high new supply increases the chance of selecting a project with genuine growth potential.
Ultimately, higher returns do not come from the label “new” or “resale”. They result from quality analysis, disciplined entry pricing, and alignment with real tenant demand in Warsaw.
Planning to buy an apartment in Warsaw?
If you are considering purchasing an apartment in Warsaw for rental purposes and want to base your decision on data rather than general opinions, get in touch with us. We will analyze your situation, budget, expected return level, and tenant profile.
Complete the contact form, and I will help you identify an investment with stronger potential in your specific case.
